開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

13E.Kiko 持續西行

查看數: 8902 評論數: 9 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2019-9-10 14:48

正文摘要:

  四級颶風   編號:13 E 名稱:Kiko   基本資料   擾動編號日期:2019 年 09 月 10 日 13 時 命名日期  :2019 年 09 月 13 日 05 時 撤編日期  :2019 年 09 月 26 ...

t02436 發表於 2019-9-20 10:12
拋物線的走法,預期進入中太前還會再次重返C1
437
WTPZ43 KNHC 192045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit
rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the
last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection
and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds.  Since then,
convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band
appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the
tropical storm.  ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only
35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since
that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt.

Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity,
little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the
guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical
models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry
air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever
reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly
than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could
encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls
for weakening.

Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the
northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to
move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the
strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in
particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by
day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor
changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model
consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than
usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

ep132019.20190919220701.gif

205154_5day_cone_with_line.png

GOES01502019263qrb5hl.jpg

13e.gif
t02436 發表於 2019-9-15 13:06
底層核心迷你,03Z報直接爆發增強到100節。
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150216
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.
The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.

There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

021829_5day_cone_with_line.png

20190915.0221.f17.91pct91h91v.13E.KIKO.95kts.970mb.17N.119.7W.095pc.jpg

GOES04502019258TixK2H.jpg

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表