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t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

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JMA升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 161E NW 10 KT.

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評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N 171.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 710
NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
180221Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BELOW SPARSE, FLARING CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS,
BROAD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (29-31C) SSTS. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT
VARY ON DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND NAVGEM DEVELOP THE SYSTEM, INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHILE THE ECMWF, UKMO, AND JGSM SHOW AN 850MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6N
171.9E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170404Z 85GHZ SSMI
IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TURNING
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD FLOW
ALOFT, ALONG WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SST, ARE
CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK, BUT ARE
SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. ECMWF, UKMO, AND JGSM MAINTAIN 97W
AS A WEAK CIRCULATION, WHILE GFS AND NAVGEM DEVELOP IT INTO A TC
AROUND 200000Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.