老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z速報判定,23W於孟加拉灣再度重回TS

23W MATMO 191106 1800 13.6N 90.4E WPAC 35 997

TPIO10 PGTW 061826

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MATMO)

B. 06/1800Z

C. 13.55N

D. 90.40E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RICHARDSON

jrchang5

JTWC 06/04Z發布TCFA。

WTIO21 PGTW 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 23W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 88.5E TO 12.4N 89.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 89.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS LOW LEVEL TURNING UNDERNEATH A CIRRUS
SHIELD. A 051548Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH AN
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 27-28
DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OUTLIER AS IT MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERN TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070400Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

IMD 05/00Z判定升格為一低壓(Depression)，編號BOB04，定強25kts，預測巔峰上望VSCS。

(B) Depression over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea.
The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over north Andaman Sea moved west-northwestwards ,
concentrated into a Depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 5th November 2019,
over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea, near Lat.13.1°N
and Long. 91.5°E, about 150 km west-northwest of Maya Bandar (Andaman Islands), about 950
km south-southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 1020 km south-southeast of Sagar islands (West Bengal)
and 1000 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangla Desh) . it is very likely to intensify into a
Deep Depression during next 12 hours and into a Cyclonic Strom during the subsequent 24 hours.
It is very likely to move west-northwestwards initially and then north-northwestwards, towards
Odisha – west Bengal coasts.

t02436

IMD編號BOB 04，上望VSCS

老農民版夜神月

JTWC04/1800Z提升評級至Medium

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 514
NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041556Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTIMATED AT 30-
31C, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT, DEPICTING A SLOW-
DEVELOPING SYSTEM REACHING 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 WHILE ON A
MEANDERING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMNANTS OF 23W IS BEING ASSESSED AS MEDIUM BASED ON ITS CURRENT
STRUCTURE, DESPITE THE LATE FORMATION TIMELINE IN GLOBAL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

對流爆發，數值皆有反應。

老農民版夜神月

jrchang5 發表於 2019-11-4 05:12
JTWC 03/18Z對已進入北印之23W殘餘雲系擾動(原西太麥德姆颱風，JTWC圖片誤載為RMNTS TD 24W)評級Low。

到了早晨,JTWC才偷偷把圖中誤載的24W改回23WXD

jrchang5

JTWC 03/18Z對已進入北印之23W殘餘雲系擾動(原西太麥德姆颱風，JTWC圖片誤載為RMNTS TD 24W)評級Low。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
96.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW
5-10 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 030343Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS
SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ESTIMATED AT 29-30C ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SLOW-DEVELOPING SYSTEM NOT
REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF
INDIA AS IT CONSOLIDATES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO LOW.

數值預報亦看好未來重新發展。