簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-4 00:55
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JTWC定強已達85節,預計24H內將達C3,而JTWC15Z最新德法亦已達5.5
WTIO32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 65.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 65.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.1N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.4N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 65.4E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 7NM
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
031053Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR,
WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL PRODUCE AN ABRUPT
EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX
TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND
INCREASINGLY HIGHER VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN TPIO11 PGTW 031526
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA)
B. 03/1500Z
C. 17.83N
D. 65.61E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN 
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