WTPN21 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
245 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 167.9E TO 17.9N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 168.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY
272 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC PERIPHERY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 102312Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
92W IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120300Z.
NNNN
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 168.3E, APPROXIMATELY
249 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLC PERIPHERY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 101739Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO
A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
92W IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
36 TO 60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9N 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL.
ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE LLC PERIPHERY AND MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A
092146Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY BEING HAMPERED BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.