(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.6N 66.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 65.2E, APPROXIMATELY 755 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 070522Z 89GHZ METOP-B SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OF 92B AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
