簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-29 22:43
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MFR29/12Z升格中度熱帶風暴,命名其為Calvinia
WTIO30 FMEE 291305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 60 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2019/12/30 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
LAST ASCAT DATA OF 0530UTC, HIGHLIGHTS THE STRONG ASYMMETRY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH WINDS OF 35KT LOCALLY 40KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CERCLE, SO THE HAS BEEN NAMED.
OVER THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASE.
WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY PERTURBED
BY THE MID/HIGHT TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12H UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BOTH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND MAINLY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MONDAY, THE DISPERSION INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT BUMPS INTO A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING IN
THE SOUTH. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRACKING SLOWLY RATHER CLOSE TO
THE MAURITIUS ISLAND NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN
FORECAST A LOOP VERY CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.
WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY IN THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING TROUGH AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE OF MIDDLE LEVEL IN THE NORTH-EAST.
TODAY, THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ESPECIALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD DISTURB THE ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM TOMORROW TO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PLACED
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE TROUGH SHOULD FILL UP. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SHOULD THUS BECOME LOW BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THE SYSTEM SHOULDN'T DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
MOREOVER, THE SLOW MOTION ASSOCIATED TO RELATIVELY MODERATE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT COULD LIMIT ALSO THE MAX INTENSITY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT
COULD STRENGHTEN THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED BAROLINIC PROCESSES.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AGREE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT THERE IS A
BIGGER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE INTENSITY DUE TO THE BIGGER DISPERSION FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST BY THE SAME RELIABLE MODELS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS AS SOON
AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SEVERE RAINFALL.
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO BEGIN RIGHT NOW SOME BASIC
PREPARATION WHILE MONITORING OFFICIAL INFORMATION.
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