老農民版夜神月

  二級熱帶氣旋  
編號：03 F ( 04 P )
名稱：Sarai

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 12 月 22 日 16 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 12 月 26 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 12 月 26 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 01 月 03 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：70 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：70 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓：975 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
99P INVEST 191222 0600 9.0S 160.0E SHEM 15 0



以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC31/0900Z發布Final Warning

WTPS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 174.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 174.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 19.8S 172.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 19.2S 169.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 173.8W.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DECAYED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 50NM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T1.5/25KTS TO T2.0/30KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING TONGA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 11 FEET.//

老農民版夜神月

JTWC28/00Z升格04P(Sarai)為C1

WTPS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 177.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 177.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 19.9S 178.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 20.0S 179.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 19.9S 179.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 19.4S 177.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 18.4S 175.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 17.4S 172.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 177.7E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280117Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A BROAD 45 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE COOLER SSTS, CONTINUED MODERATE TO
STRONG VWS, AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE
INTENSITY TO WEAKEN. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). THERE IS A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NER AND SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE TRACK OF
TC 04P. THE MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/REORIENTATION OF THE NER DIFFERENTLY,
LEADING TO A WIDE VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. NOTABLY,
THE 12Z RUN OF ECMWF NOW TRACKS TC 04P TO THE NORTH BRINGING IT
OVER FIJI BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. FURTHERMORE, THE 18Z RUNS OF THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM RECURVE THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 72 AND
START TRACKING TC 04P NORTHEAST TOWARDS AMERICAN SAMOA. MEANWHILE,
THE 12Z UK MET AND UK MET ENSEMBLE CONTINUE A DUE EASTERLY TRACK,
WHICH WAS DOMINANT PRIOR TO THE 272100Z JTWC WARNING. THEREFORE,
THE JTWC TRACK CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z,
282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

FMS升格澳式C2,將逐漸通過斐濟西方及南方海域

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 270855 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAI CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 175.4E AT
270600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.


EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT


DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC WITH OVERALL ORGANISATION
GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHWARDS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET STREAM.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8/0.9 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF
3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 19.2S 176.0E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 19.9S 176.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 20.3S 178.0E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC 20.5S 179.1E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC SARAI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 271400UTC.

老農民版夜神月

FMS升格澳式C1,命名Sarai,即將侵襲斐濟

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAI CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 176.1E AT
261200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 19 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.


EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC WITH OVERALL ORGANISATION
IMPROVING. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE AND MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 16.6S 176.0E MOV S AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 18.0S 176.4E MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 18.9S 177.4E MOV S AT 9 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 19.4S 178.7E MOV SSE AT 8 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SARAI WILL BE ISSUED AT
AROUND 262000UTC.

老農民版夜神月

FMS08Z預測03F即將升格,將向南掠過斐濟後轉向東南方向移動,並上看澳式C2

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 260754 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6 SOUTH
175.8 EAST AT 260600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/VIS
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING.

DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP ON SUPPOSED LLCC WITH OVERALL
ORGANISATION IMPROVING. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5/0.55 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF
2.5. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS
T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A SOUTHWARD TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261800UTC 14.8S 175.8E MOV S AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270600UTC 16.6S 176.1E MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271800UTC 18.0S 176.6E MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280600UTC 18.7S 177.7E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 261400UTC.

jrchang5

JTWC判定26/06Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 04P，預測將逐漸南下逼近斐濟。

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260321ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 176.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 176.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.4S 176.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 17.2S 176.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 18.1S 176.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 18.6S 177.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 19.2S 179.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 20.1S 176.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 20.4S 172.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 176.2E.
26DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SPIRAL BANDING IN A 260525Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 (35 KTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER).
THE NER WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. AS THE NER REORIENTS, TC 04P WILL TURN EASTWARD, JUST SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KTS AS IT PASSES NADI. AFTERWARD, STRONG VWS
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AS TC 04P MOVES EASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH ARE POLEWARD OF THE OTHER
MEMBERS, THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNS WITH THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, NAVGEM BECOMES A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS AS IT ACCELERATES FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS ONCE THE
SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD. BASED ON FAIR OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 260300).//
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老農民版夜神月

JTWC25/0300Z發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1S 175.9E TO 12.7S 175.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 175.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8S 176.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 176.4E, APPROXIMATELY 870
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242127Z METOP-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 99P
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260300Z.//
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