(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S
62.6E, APPROXIMATELY 488 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011254Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT BROAD, BUILDING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 011507 ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH
NO DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S IS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AMD
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM (29-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
