(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 90.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 471
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SUPPORTED BY ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INVEST 93S REMAINS IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
ABIO10 PGTW 121100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/121100Z-121800ZAPR2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
OVER A POORLY ORGANIZED AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A RECENT
120204Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALED SPARSE 15- TO 20-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH A BROAD 20-25 KNOT WIND FIELD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST
93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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