(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N
138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051143Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEAL A
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ISOLATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
