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聯合颱風警報中心:熱帶風暴
原文:
WDPN31 PGTW 012100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT)
WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 011901Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DISCRETE LLCC, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KTS, PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BY PGTW/RJTD AND T2.5 (35 KTS) BY RCTP.
THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (>30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSETTING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HINDERING CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TS 03W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
WHICH ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD AND OVER THE SHANGHAI REGION OF
EASTERN CHINA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD
OF 106 NM AT TAU 48. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 24 TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS, INCREASING
NORTHERLY VWS SHOULD HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TS 03W IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU
48 WHERE LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU
72, TS 03W SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
REEMERGES OVER THE COOLER WATERS (22-23 CELSIUS) NORTH OF THE
SHANGHAI REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, TS 03W MAY
DISSIPATE EARLIER DUE TO THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
4. JUSTFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM NUMBER AND
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN PARA 2.//
NNNN 機器翻譯(翻譯粗劣 僅供參考):WDPN31 PGTW 012100 COR
MSGID / GENADMIN /關節颱風WRNCEN珍珠港HI //
熱帶風暴03W(HAGUPIT)的SUBJ /預測性推理
警告NR 004A已糾正//
RMKS /
1.對於氣象學家。
2. 6小時總結和分析。
熱帶風暴(TS)03W(HAGUPIT),定位在約286海裡
沖繩的KADENA AB西南偏南,在
過去六個小時共計8個結(KTS)。動畫增強紅外
衛星影像描述了部分暴露的低水平循環
東部具有深對流帶的中心(LLCC)
半圓。定義的011901Z GMI 89 GHZ微波圖像顯示
將對流帶狀包裹成離散的LLCC,並保持良好狀態
對初始位置的信心。初始強度是
以35 KTS評估,位於DVORAK電流強度之間
PGTW / RJTD估算T2.0(30 KTS),RCTP估算T2.5(35 KTS)。
改進的對流結構進一步支持了這一點
在穿孔的微波圖像中觀察到。環境是
總體適度適合持續良好的開發
出水溫度(> 30°C)海面溫度偏移
西北垂直風切變(VWS)遮蓋對流
西半球。TS 03W正在跟踪
北部亞熱帶深脊(STR)的外圍
它也向南延伸到系統的東部。
3.預測原因。
A.自上次以來,預測哲學沒有變化
預言推理消息。
B. TS 03W預計會沿著西南方向行進
沿TAU 48的低至中水平線的外圍。
隨著跟踪,系統將通過TAU 72向北
STR的西部外圍以及上海地區上空。
中國東部。除了Navegem解決方案,數值
模型指導已達成良好協議,並採用跨行交易模型擴展
在TAU 48的106 NM中發現。TS 03W預計將在總體上增強
通過TAU 24至45 KTS的峰值。但是,由於緊湊
此系統的性質,可能有更高的峰值
在接下來的24小時內進行強度測試。跟著這個,增加
北VWS應該進一步強化並開始
弱化系統。TS 03W預計將在TAU附近製造陸架
48土地相互作用將繼續使系統疲軟。牛頭人
72,TS 03W應該重新開始進入中緯西部地區
並開始進行非熱帶轉化(ETT)。
C.在延長期內,TS 03W會繼續保持不變
在北部的庫勒水域(22-23 CELSIUS)上溢流
上海地區。TAU 96 AS預計該系統將完全完成ETT
它已被嵌入到WESTERLIES中。但是,TS 03W 5月
由於整體環境不利,請儘早使用
條件。總體而言,JTWC的信心中等
預測軌跡,位於多模型共識附近。
4.糾正理由:正確的風暴編號和
第2段中的地理參考。
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