t02436

JTWC初報巔峰上望50節。

king111807

JTWC發佈TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 126.4E TO 25.6N 126.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
SCATTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST. A 071716Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LLC. A 071309Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND AND A SMALL SWATH
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REMAINING
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082130Z.//
NNNN

t02436

JTWC升05W

05W.FIVE.20kts.1001mb.18.3N.126.3E

老農民版夜神月

JMA18Z發布GW

熱帯低気圧
令和02年08月08日04時15分 発表

<08日03時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 16度25分(16.4度)
東経 126度20分(126.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<09日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 21度50分(21.8度)
東経 125度40分(125.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

king111807

週末好天氣，沒問題！

但下星期，就要注意低壓動態囉～

　

在菲律賓東方，

已經醞釀一段時間的低壓９４Ｗ，

預計會在週末結束，趁高壓稍微減弱時，

從台灣東邊一路向北，前進日韓。

　

目前看，

９４Ｗ未來無論成不成颱，

都跟台灣沒啥關係，

我們要關注的重點，是旁邊的南海低壓。

　

現在南海低壓組織還不好，連編號都還沒有，

但隨著菲東的94W北上後，

這顆低壓會一起被拉來台灣附近，

成不成颱未知，但對天氣影響肯定不會少～

　

目前預計南海低壓影響的時間

會落在「下週平日」，

對中南部、花東的天氣影響很大，

暑假出門玩，多注意啦！

參考資料｜RAMMB

發布時間｜2020-08-07 22:20

老農民版夜神月

JTWC07/1230Z提升評級為Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 071230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/071230Z-080600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY
580 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071025Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST
CHINA SEA WHILE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 18-
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

天篷大元帥

日本氣象廳看好發展，預測兩日後已經命名。
(圖片經修改)

Heigo

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.2N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070108Z METOP-B 89
GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS BUT NO
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 5-10KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
10-15KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL FLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA
SEA WHILE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.