1. An area of low pressure is located around 600 miles
south- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Shower and thunderstorm activity
have become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development during
the next few days and a tropical depression may form later this
weekend or early next week as the system moves steadily west at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased but remain disorganized
with an area of low pressure located some 1300 miles southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development as the system moves toward the west near
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized with an area of
low pressure some 1120 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
development as the system moves toward the west near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
1. A nearly stationary area of low pressure about 700 miles south of
Honolulu, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and lacks significant organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days as the system moves toward
the west slowly.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 170030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751Z AUG 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 160800)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 160800). THE
AREA OF CONVECTION(INVEST 90C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 156.3W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5158.0W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 162041Z GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90C HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO A LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THEREFORE, IT IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN
WTPN21 PHNC 170030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751Z AUG 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 160800)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 160800). THE
AREA OF CONVECTION(INVEST 90C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 156.3W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5158.0W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 162041Z GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90C HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO A LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THEREFORE, IT IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN
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