2007 無花果南海北部命名強襲珠三角

霧峰追風者 · 2020-8-17 21:48

熱帯低気圧
令和02年08月17日22時30分発表

<17日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域バシー海峡
中心位置北緯 19度40分(19.7度)
東経 119度20分(119.3度)
進行方向、速さ西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<18日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 19度35分(19.6度)
東経 114度05分(114.1度)
進行方向、速さ西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 150km(80NM)

周子堯@FB · 2020-8-17 11:06

JTWC 0330Z發布TCFA，預測將穿越巴士海峽

WTPN21 PGTW 170330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 122.1E TO 20.8N 116.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 121.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 18.4N
123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF
APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
162240Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 170101Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20KT
WINDS EMBEDDED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AS 99W IS EXPERIENCING FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (< 15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.