(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.5N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160448Z
ATMS 165 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C), LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS, MAINLY GFS AND ECMWF, ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER LUZON WITH LIMITED INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
