(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 126.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY
578 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200423Z ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE
REVEAL WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER.
A 200054Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A 10-19KT
WIND FIELD. INVEST 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY TO
LAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
IN VICINITY OF OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.5N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE NOTED IN A 190759Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE IS DISORGANIZED,
HOWEVER SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A PARTIAL 190045Z ASCAT-A PASS
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
CIRCULATION IN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONTAINS WEAK CORE WINDS OF
10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER 20-25 KTS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE BOHOL SEA DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN HIGH
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY CHANGES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.