hokjar1212

gfs系集分歧縮小, 預測94W移向南韓, 巔峰942百帕。

Heigo

JTWC Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY
480 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261222Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
94W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT
48-60 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

ben811018

ＥＣ系集，依然分歧

正宜27

jma預測明天將增強為TD

Heigo

JTWC Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.1N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE,
OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252221Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB

FNMOC 00z首編衛星雲圖，未來路徑分歧仍大

霧峰追風者

GFS 預測將從台灣東部海域北上，巔峰上望944百帕。