WTPN21 PGTW 311030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.9N 147.1E TO 23.0N 144.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.7N
145.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 299 NM EAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TO WRAP. A 310828Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE NORTH. 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST
SLIGHTLY WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011030Z.//
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