天篷大元帥

中央氣象局：熱帶性低氣壓

熱帶性低氣壓TD12
現況
2020年08月31日14時

中心位置在北緯 23.8 度，東經 146.8 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西南西 時速 9 公里
預測 09月01日02時
中心位置在北緯 23.6 度，東經 145.8 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西南西 時速 9 公里
預測 09月01日14時
中心位置在北緯 23.3 度，東經 144.8 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 170 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

ha093405

霧峰追風者 發表於 2020-8-31 15:06
梅莎西太風王坐不久就要被海神篡位!?  GFS 巔峰上望925百帕。

其實這一報最後還有大彩蛋，有一中颱會從台灣海峽近逼西部平原，一切只是預報，別太認真~

t02436

JMA 06Z發布GW

熱帯低気圧
令和02年08月31日16時25分 発表

<31日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯 23度50分(23.8度)
東経 146度55分(146.9度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<01日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯 23度25分(23.4度)
東経 144度30分(144.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

霧峰追風者

梅莎西太風王坐不久就要被海神篡位!?  GFS 巔峰上望925百帕。

ktf

副高高緯阻塞太變態了,印象中這種環流形勢也不多見,所以導致兩颱風往高緯走時
是以北北西走然後併入西風大槽

非常少見的情況

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.1N 145.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
247 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH A 302111Z SSMIS COMPOSITE 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 302328Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
DEPICTS  A 15-20 KNOT DEVELOPING CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST. INVEST 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD NORTHERLY DIFFLUENCE,
WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING INVEST 95W DEVELOPING SLOWLY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JMA 00Z升格熱帶低壓。

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0600Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.1N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 300333Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE
ANALYZED SURFACE POSITION WHICH IS PLACED IN THE CROOK OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE IS PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCATED EAST OF 95W. A 292234Z
PARTIAL METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
SURROUNDED BY 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT OF 95W WITH A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
ECMWF IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER, SHOWING 95W TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TURNING ONTO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.