ABPW10 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081930Z-090600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 08OCT20 1200Z, TYPHOON 16W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED NEAR
29.5N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7N 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL
TURNING. A 081230Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 92W IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
VERY WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2N
116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090000Z GMI 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 92W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY
WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
AS IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
THE AREA ON CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY
466 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH
LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE FORMATIVE BANDS ARE ALSO PRESENT
IN A 090525Z ATMS 183GHZ WHICH FURTHER CONSTRAINS THE CURRENT
POSITION. INVEST 92W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE VWS WEAKENS BELOW 15 KTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
提升卡
千斤頂
