(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.9N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILLA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110202Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SHALLOW FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION. AN 110204Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS MAINLY 10-15KT
WINDS WITH SOME 20KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. INVEST 93W IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 93W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.