(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.9N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILLA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110202Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SHALLOW FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION. AN 110204Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS MAINLY 10-15KT
WINDS WITH SOME 20KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. INVEST 93W IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 93W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.9N 119.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY
183 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110547Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
SHALLOW FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. AN 110204Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS MAINLY 10-15KT WINDS WITH SOME 20KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 110930) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.