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PAGASA率先命名"Quinta"，上看STS不封頂

Forecast Position
24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 715 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar(12.1 °N, 131.2 °E)
48 Hour(Sunday afternoon):320 km East of Juban, Sorsogon( 13.1 °N, 126.9 °E)
72 Hour(Monday afternoon): 70 km North of Romblon, Romblon( 13.2 °N, 122.3 °E)
96 Hour(Tuesday afternoon):400 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro( 13.8 °N, 117.5 °E)
120 Hour(Wednesday afternoon):700 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)( 14.8 °N, 113.8 °E)

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CWB升格TD21。

熱帶性低氣壓TD21

現況

2020年10月23日14時

中心位置在北緯 10.0 度，東經 134.0 度

過去移動方向 -

過去移動時速 -公里

中心氣壓 1004百帕

近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺

瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

北北西 時速 19 公里

預測 10月24日02時

中心位置在北緯 12.0 度，東經 133.6 度

中心氣壓1002百帕

近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺

瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

70%機率半徑 120 公里

預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西北 時速 20 公里

預測 10月24日14時

中心位置在北緯 13.3 度，東經 131.8 度

中心氣壓1000百帕

近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺

瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

70%機率半徑 160 公里

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06z評級提升Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230115Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO
AN EXPOSED, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 98W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT INDICATE AN INCREASE IN INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS
WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JMA 升格熱帶低壓。

老農民版夜神月

晚間風場掃到LLCC封閉型態良好，且有不少20KT風旗，JTWC提升強度至20節
1530Z評級Low

ABPW10 PGTW 221530
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 221241Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS POCKETS OF FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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JMA預測一天後TD

霧峰追風者

發展不如預期，最新一報巔峰僅上望967百帕。

老農民版夜神月

主流數值傾向於支持98W發展
而最新的EC12Z模式預測更把98W巔峰報到952百帕