dom

03A雖然環流細小，但是結構不差，早前建構好底層眼

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格03A後首報,上望40節並預測將約於+24H後登陸索馬利亞

WTIO31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 55.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 55.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 10.6N 53.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 10.5N 51.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 10.7N 49.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 10.9N 47.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 55.0E.
21NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634
NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SYMMETRICAL, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER TOP OF THE
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TWO ASCAT BULLSEYE PASSES,
AT 211612Z AND 211727Z AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION
EVIDENT IN TH 211725 AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 211612Z ASCAT-
A BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS
ARRAYED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 30-35 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE MOST
RECENT PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
LENDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VWS, LUKEWARM (27-28 DEG C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME MINIMAL NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN
PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEAST SOMALI COAST NEAR RAS HAFUN, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS, BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND COOLER
WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST SOMALIA, DISSIPATING AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AND ECMWF DEPICTING A TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WHILE THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE
THE VORTEX SOUTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF SOMALIA AND LOSE
THE VORTEX ALTOGETHER BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
221500Z AND 222100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210800).//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z升格03A

IO, 03, 2020112118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 556E, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 30, 65, 1008, 100, 20, 0, 0, A, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, ioB52020 to io032020,

老農民版夜神月

IMD編號ARB 04

ARB/04/2020
Dated: 21.11.2020
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD

老農民版夜神月

最新風場掃描顯示LLCC已明顯閉合，惟中心附近風力仍然偏弱

dom

JTWC發佈TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 210800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 59.5E TO 11.0N 52.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 59.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 60.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 59.3E, APPROXIMATELY 323
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210621Z METOP-B 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 210504Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 30-35KT WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 95A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
(27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95A
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220800Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0200Z提升評級至Medium
並於20/18Z升格其為TD,00Z定強30KT

IO, 95, 2020112012,   , BEST,   0, 112N,  627E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  170,  30,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
IO, 95, 2020112018,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  617E,  25, 1006, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  170,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 95, 2020112100,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  603E,  30, 1003, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,   50,  25,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 56.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 340
NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 202350Z
SSMI F-15 85HZ PASS DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
INVEST 95A IS EMBEDDED WITHIN IN A LARGE AREA OF MONSOON TROUGHING,
WITH TWO ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS (INVESTS 94A AND 96A). INVEST 95A
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, AND IS BECOMING THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THERE IS CURRENTLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW. LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 27
DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95A WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1800Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 518 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201202Z SSMIS F-16 91H IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 95A HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION OVER 94A WHICH HAS NOW BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN INVEST ONLY INVEST 95A IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95A WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.