老農民版夜神月

  熱帶低壓  
編號：09-20202021 ( 13 S )
名稱：無

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2021 年 01 月 19 日 21 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 01 月 21 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 02 月 03 日 09 時
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：30 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：35 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：1001 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
93S.INVEST.15kts.1001mb.12S.107E
以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

FNMOC0130Z撤編

老農民版夜神月

雖然GFS系集中仍然有少數屈指可數支持重新發展的線條
不過由目前最新的數值預報看來，包括GFS本身的模式預報，已經幾乎均對其13S不再有能起死回生的預測

老農民版夜神月

在數千公里的奔波與數日的掙扎後,終究逐漸消散,只餘空殼
JTWC1800Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 61.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC重新開始評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 13S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.5S 77.3E, APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST OF PORT MANTHURIN, MAURITIUS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 291332Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S IS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MARGINAL (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK
WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

MFR已停止發報，展望中亦不見其蹤影

老農民版夜神月

GFS認為13S於後期接近馬達加斯加時，將滯留並顯著增強

dom

JTWC發佈Final Warning