老農民版夜神月

MFR開始對13S發報，並認定其為熱帶低壓，編號09-20202021,暫不看好命名

DEPRESSION TROPICALE numéro 9

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 75 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1001 hPa.
Position le 27 janvier à 16 heures locales: 19.6 Sud / 90.4 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 3595 km au secteur: EST
Distance de Mayotte: 4870 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST
Déplacement: OUEST, à 19 km/h.

Informations sur le système :
1) La dépression tropicale 09 est un système de faible intensité venant du bassin australien. Son intensité restera faible tout au long de son suivi.

2) Actuellement à l'extrémité Est du bassin, il ne présente pas de risque particulier pour les terres habitées.


Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 28/01 à 16h locales, par 19.0 Sud / 83.8 Est.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 29/01 à 16h locales, par 17.6 Sud / 76.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 30/01 à 16h locales, par 16.7 Sud / 70.1 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 31/01 à 16h locales, par 15.7 Sud / 64.1 Est.

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
Centre positionné le 01/02 à 16h locales, par 15.0 Sud / 58.7 Est

老農民版夜神月

JTWC在BoM不再認為將升格後持續發報，預計一天半後即將進入MFR轄區
MFR已對13S有些微反應

老農民版夜神月

BoM預測三日內升格機率為低

A tropical low (10U) was located near 16.1S 97.3E at 14:000 WST Sunday 24 January, which is about 440 kilometres south of the Cocos Islands. It is forecast to move southwest, then start moving west sometime Tuesday which takes it out of the region during Wednesday or Thursday. Gales could develop to the west of the system overnight into Monday, and then shift to the southern side on Tuesday as the system starts enhancing the easterly winds to the south of the system. There is only a small chance of it being categorised as a tropical cyclone. This will be when it is well away from the Cocos Islands and the West Australian coast, with no direct impacts expected.

As this system moves further south, the northwesterly winds between the islands and Indonesia should ease, and likewise the northwesterly swell impacting Flying Fish Cove on Christmas Island should be on a slow easing trend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Low
Tuesday:
Low
Wednesday:
Low

老農民版夜神月

預測短時間內不會升格，BoM停止對13S繼續發報

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0632 UTC 22/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 97.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [232 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  22/1200: 13.3S  97.3E:     025 [045]:  035  [065]:  995
+12:  22/1800: 13.5S  97.4E:     040 [075]:  035  [065]:  995
+18:  23/0000: 13.8S  97.4E:     050 [095]:  035  [065]:  995
+24:  23/0600: 14.2S  97.5E:     070 [130]:  035  [065]:  995
+36:  23/1800:             :              :            :     
+48:  24/0600:             :              :            :     
+60:  24/1800:             :              :            :     
+72:  25/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  26/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 27/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
The low level centre of tropical low 10U remains well exposed from the deep
convection that is displaced to the west of the system and as a result the
position accuracy is good. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a shear
pattern with less than three-quarters of a degree between the low level centre
and the deep convection, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT were both 2.0. FT was
based on MET.

An ASCAT pass at 0206UTC showed a swath of gales within about 110nm of the
system centre in the northern semicircle, with maximum winds of 35-40 knots. As
of 0600UTC, gales were continuing about the Cocos Island National Tidal Centre
Automatic Weather Station [AWS] and winds remained below gale force at the Cocos
Island Airport AWS.

Tropical low 10U is currently in an area of strong vertical wind shear on the
northern side of the upper ridge, under a divergent easterly flow. The middle
level circulation is weak, and displaced well to the west of the low level
circulation. As a result, the system will likely take some time to reconsolidate
into a deep circulation [if it does at all], and therefore it is rated a low
chance of forming into a tropical cyclone from Sunday.

At the moment the system is slow-moving but it should start to be guided in a
general southerly direction into Saturday by a low to mid-level ridge situated
to the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z升格13S。

13S INVEST 210121 0000 12.4S 97.2E SHEM 30 1001

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 100.8E TO 13.4S 95.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 99.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 100.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY
153NM ESE OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, 201202Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211500Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

BoM開始對其發報，預測＋36H後升格澳式C1

dom

JTWC將評級提升至Medium

93S INVEST 210120 0600 12.8S 100.9E SHEM 25 1004

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 100.9E, APPROXIMATELY
235 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200222Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A
PARTIAL 200607Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
20-25KT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20KT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.