(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.0S 109.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA,
INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191715Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOWER LEVEL BANDING WITH CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK
WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
A tropical low (10U) was located about 260 kilometres southeast of Christmas Island at 1300 WST Tuesday 19 January. It is forecast to continue moving generally west. Guidance generally indicates an unfavourable environment which means there is only a Low risk of 10U reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday.
Although there is currently only a Very Low risk of 10U being a tropical cyclone on Wednesday the Cocos (Keeling) Islands could experience heavy rainfall and squally strong winds as the low moves past during Wednesday and early Thursday. There is also the potential for a north to northwesterly swell impacting Flying Fish cove on Christmas Island over the next week as a result of persistent northwesterly winds between the islands and Indonesia.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low