老農民版夜神月

  中度熱帶風暴  
編號：14-20202021 ( 25 S )
名稱：lman

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2021 年 03 月 04 日 00 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 03 月 08 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 03 月 07 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 03 月 08 日 05 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：30 kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓：996 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
91S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.17.1S.39.6E

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

dom

JTWC00Z判定轉化為副熱帶低氣壓

sh252021 IMAN 20210309 0000 -27.7 63.9 S SD 30 999

老農民版夜神月

JTWC這似乎是有點發抽，居然認定至今仍為TD,事實上應是早已轉化

SH, 25, 2021030806,   , BEST,   0, 267S,  612E,  45,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,  100,   65,   45,   75, 1006,  250,  50,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,       IMAN, M,
SH, 25, 2021030812,   , BEST,   0, 274S,  621E,  30, 1000, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  250,  50,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,       IMAN, S,
SH, 25, 2021030818,   , BEST,   0, 274S,  627E,  30, 1000, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  200,  50,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,       IMAN, S,

dom

MFR對其發佈最終報

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE numéro 14
(EX-IMAN)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 65 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 95 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 996 hPa.
Position le 08 mars à 16 heures locales: 27.5 Sud / 62.5 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 965 km au secteur: SUD-EST
Distance de Mayotte: 2430 km au secteur: SUD-EST
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 30 km/h.

Informations sur le système :
1) IMAN continue de s'éloigner des Mascareignes en direction du Sud-Est.

2) IMAN est en train de perdre ses caractéristiques purement tropicales et devrait disparaître au sein des moyennes latitudes en fin de semaine.

dom

JTWC降格TD

25S IMAN 210308 1200 28.3S 62.2E SHEM 30 1000

dom

JTWC09Z發佈Final Warning

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 61.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 61.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 29.3S 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 61.9E.
08MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AS IT
ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD CHARACTERIZED BY UNRAVELED/DISPERSED
RAIN BANDS AND WARMED CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080437Z 25KM
RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
DRIFTED INTO COOLER (27C AND DECREASING) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG (40KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND GROSSLY ELONGATED WITH
THE 35KT WIND FIELD EXPANDED UP TO 100NM. TC PHASE CLASSIFICATION
WORKSHEET INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW SUBTROPICAL AND WILL REMAIN SO
AS IT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

MFR判定已於06Z成為後熱帶氣旋

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE numéro 14
(IMAN)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 75 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 100 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 996 hPa.
Position le 08 mars à 10 heures locales: 26.5 Sud / 61.0 Est.

WTIO22 FMEE 080629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (IMAN) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
27.7 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
29.1 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

老農民版夜神月

JTWC將升格TS的時間提前到了07/12Z,儘管昨天午前的風場其實就已經支持升格

SH, 25, 2021030706, , BEST, 0, 228S, 550E, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 55, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
SH, 25, 2021030712, , BEST, 0, 234S, 562E, 40, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 85, 100, 90, 75, 1006, 200, 65, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 25, 2021030718, , BEST, 0, 244S, 580E, 45, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 85, 100, 90, 75, 1002, 200, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYFIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shF12021 to sh252021,