老農民版夜神月

  熱帶低壓  
編號： 13 F ( 28 P )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 04 月 07 日 22 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 04 月 11 日 03 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 04 月 12 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：15 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：40 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：1001 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
92P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.11.2S.154.3E

以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

dom

JTWC00Z降格TD

28P TWENTYEIGH 210412 0000 28.7S 173.4E SHEM 30 1000

dom

FMS不再提及此系統

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 112307 UTC.  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC ：Too Weak

TPPS10 PGTW 111817

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTY EIGHT)

B. 11/1800Z

C. 28.12S

D. 171.66E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   HEINS

將逐漸轉化並消亡

dom

JTWC FW

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 27.5S 170.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 170.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 29.9S 172.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 171.2E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
409 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED, WITH THE LOWER LEVELS DECOUPLING AND LAGGING BEHIND THE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A PARTIAL 111013Z
ASCAT-B PASS LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SAME
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 35-40KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY WEAKENING CIRCULATION. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS), CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 28P IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST, BUT FORWARD SPEED HAS
SLOWED AS IT DECOUPLES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 35 KNOTS AND
SSTS WILL COOL TO LESS THAN 25C, LEADING TO RAPID DISSIPATION BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

dom

SSD06Z判定轉化為副熱帶氣旋

TXPS25 KNES 110614
TCSWSP
A. 28P (NONAME)
B. 11/0530Z
C. 25.6S
D. 168.6E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. SUBTROPICAL
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE
LLCC PROGRESSING POLE WARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTER AS WELL
AS THE SYSTEM IS INCREASING IN SIZE AND PROGRESSING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN
UNLESS TROPICAL TRANSITION REOCCURS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SAMBUCCI

dom

JTWC00Z把定強稍提升至40節並認為巔峰已達

28P TWENTYEIGH 210411 0000 24.6S 167.9E SHEM 40 1002

TPPS10 PGTW 110021
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTY EIGHT)
B. 11/0000Z
C. 24.50S
D. 167.80E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS

dom

正在加速南移, FMS放棄命名

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 102242 UTC.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 24.1S 167.4E AT 102100UTC. TD13F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC . ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING INTO A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODEL ARE GRADUALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SSTS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.