|
|
JTWC1330Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 100923Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A PARTIAL 101108Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS 15-20
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC ALONG WITH A STRONG
(20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. IN
ADDITION, A 101135Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK,
LLC WHICH PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST
94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. 
|
|
