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JTWC01Z評級MediumABIO10 PGTW 110100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/110100Z-111800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N
57.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA, YEMEN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
102151Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 101730Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE INVEST 92A IS IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEER AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
92A WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AS
MEDIUM.//
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