老農民版夜神月

JTWC跳過TCFA,直接升格04W

TPPN11 PGTW 291801

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF PALAU)

B. 29/1740Z

C. 6.04N

D. 134.45E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   ELIAS

周子堯@FB

JMA 06Z 99W升格為TD，而90W則維持LPA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 06N 136E WNW 10 KT.

dom

JTWC06Z評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 142.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 74
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY MINIMAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND
STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

GFS18Z最新預報及系集

老農民版夜神月

JMA天氣圖同樣持續較看好99W,並預測+48H時其已為TD

老農民版夜神月

相比隔壁一直較看好90W的GFS,EC12Z無論系集或決定報,更為看好99W發展將壓過90W
就看接下來幾天的發展結果吧

老農民版夜神月

ASCAT昨夜風場,怪不得JTWC會將其定強再度下調至15KT

99W INVEST 210527 1800 6.8N 143.6E WPAC 15 1007

老農民版夜神月

繼00Z報之後,EC決定報持續報出99W,雖然強度仍預報的較弱