ABPW10 PGTW 021830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021830Z-030600ZJUL2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021700Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WAVE
AXIS. A 021230Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED A
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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