老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：09 E
名稱：Jimena

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 07 月 27 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 08 月 05 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 08 月 08 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1005 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
99E.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.14N.120W

NHC：20%

1. A small but well-defined area of low pressure located more than 700
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce a small area of shower and
thunderstorm activity near its center.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
westward at around 10 mph.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

結果果真又是一進轄區馬上判定為LO

CPHC這也是沒準了,真夠懶的

EP, 09, 2021080700, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1405W, 30, 1009, LO,

老農民版夜神月

進入中太,將交由CPHC發報,不過照預報來看大概會跟06E.Felicia一樣一兩報就會停編

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 062032
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has
waned.  A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak
believable winds of around 30 kt.  The latest Dvorak T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these
data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt.  Jimena is
currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass.
In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path
during the next 12 hours.  These factors should cause continued
weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
by late tonight or early Saturday.

The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt.  The west-northwestward
motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a
gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow.  The new track forecast is slightly to
the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement
with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2
and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

老農民版夜神月

即將進入中太

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 052032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this
morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern
semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of
the surface center.  The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.

Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses
decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding
environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and
stable air mass.  Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also
expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period.
The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN
intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression
in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on
Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday.

The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt.  A
mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone
should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48
period.  Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as
the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level
environmental flow.  The NHC track forecast, once again, follows
the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

周子堯@FB

最終仍獲得命名09E.Jimena

WTPZ44 KNHC 050835
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

Deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone during
the last several hours, and an outer convective band is present in
the southeastern semicircle.  Subjective satellite intensity
estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus estimate is 39 kt.  Based on these data, the system is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena with 35-kt winds.

The initial motion is 315/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the northeast
of the tropical cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 2-3
days, and this should keep Jimena moving generally northwestward.  
After that time, a west-northwestward motion is expected as the
weakening system is steered more by the low-level flow.  The track
guidance models have shifted a bit to the right since the previous
advisory. Therefore, the official forecast will also be nudged to
the right.  However, the new forecast track still lies to the left
of the consensus models.

While Jimena is in a moist and low-shear environment, the storm is
moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the center
forecast to be over 25 C water in about 24 h.  Thus, little
additional strengthening is expected.  After 24 h, the system
should weaken due to even colder SSTs and increasing shear.  The
new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous
forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 15.5N 136.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

老農民版夜神月

NHC再度升格TD

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042035
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

Satellite images today indicate that the system has been maintaining
two hooking bands of convection to the north and south of the
center.  In addition, scatterometer data shows a well-defined,
albeit a touch elongated, center and 30-kt winds. Thus, advisories
are being re-started on Tropical Depression Nine-E after a 3-day
hiatus, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.  

The depression probably only has a few days as a tropical cyclone
again because SSTs begin to drop off in a day or so, along with
increasing shear and mid-level dry air.  Nine-E does have a chance
to finally become a tropical storm in the meantime before
the aforementioned environmental conditions get less conducive on
Friday.  The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
again this weekend (or sooner) as it encounters a very hostile
environment.  The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model
consensus, but is a smidge higher near peak intensity, owing to the
HCCA corrected-consensus guidance.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the north-northwest
today. A distant mid-level ridge to the northeast is providing the
steering for the cyclone.  This ridge should strengthen somewhat
during the next few days, causing the depression to gradually turn
to the northwest on Thursday and continue that motion through late
week.  Similar to a lot of forecasts this year, the GFS-based
guidance is on the right side of the track envelope while the ECMWF
and UKMET solutions lie on the left side.  The official track
assumes that the GFS shows a bit too deep of a tropical cyclone, and
so the NHC prediction leans just west of the consensus throughout
the forecast period.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 14.9N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

1. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The associated
shower activity is showing signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional
development over the next couple of days.  A tropical depression is
likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.  By late
Thursday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
further development by that time is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC再發TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 022330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 09E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 130.8W TO 17.3N 135.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021808Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 130.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 09E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.2N 130.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022221Z ASMR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 09E
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032330Z.//
NNNN