WTPZ44 KNHC 050835
Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021
Deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone during
the last several hours, and an outer convective band is present in
the southeastern semicircle. Subjective satellite intensity
estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus estimate is 39 kt. Based on these data, the system is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena with 35-kt winds.
The initial motion is 315/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast
of the tropical cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 2-3
days, and this should keep Jimena moving generally northwestward.
After that time, a west-northwestward motion is expected as the
weakening system is steered more by the low-level flow. The track
guidance models have shifted a bit to the right since the previous
advisory. Therefore, the official forecast will also be nudged to
the right. However, the new forecast track still lies to the left
of the consensus models.
While Jimena is in a moist and low-shear environment, the storm is
moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the center
forecast to be over 25 C water in about 24 h. Thus, little
additional strengthening is expected. After 24 h, the system
should weaken due to even colder SSTs and increasing shear. The
new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous
forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 15.5N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
1. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The associated
shower activity is showing signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional
development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression is
likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late
Thursday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
further development by that time is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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