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JTWC Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.7N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. A 020902Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY OVER LAND. INVEST 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SST,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (<15 KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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