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2113 康森 橫掃菲中群島 重創菲國17死

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-9-5 08:55 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:2113 ( 18 W )
名稱: 康森 ( Conson )
2113.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        :2021 09 05 08
JMA升格熱低日期:2021 09 06 02
CWB編號日期      :2021 09 06 14
命名日期          :2021 09 06 14
停編日期              :2021 09 12 02
登陸地點      : 菲律賓 東薩馬省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB):28 m/s ( 10 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) :30 m/s ( 55 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):65 kts ( Cat.1 )
菲律賓大氣地球物理和天文服務管理局(PAGASA):120 km/h
海平面最低氣壓980 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  : 120 公里
十級風半徑  : ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  
2113_JTWC.jpg

  擾動編號資料  
95W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11N.131E

20210905.0020.himawari-8.vis.95W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11N.131E.100pc.jpg
18W_RBTOP.png

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、PAGASA、颱風論壇整理製作

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簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-5 14:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 446 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. INVEST
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, WARM (30C) SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT INVEST 95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION
AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.


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簽到天數: 178 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

蔡秉勳|2021-9-5 21:35 | 顯示全部樓層
持續爆對流快一天了,因處在良好的環境(1.高SST OHC,
2.良好極向流出,甚至比94w更好
3.低垂直風切),逐漸北漂過程也有逐漸發展的趨勢,但主流數值決定性預報,
對他的發展仍保守,不知道與94w 互動是否有機會占優勢,
目前個數值指出其趨向巴士海峽、菲北
重點:最新已掃出35kts的風標 20210905.1148.mta.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.114N.1303E.25km.noqc (1).jpg 20210905.1310.himawari-8.ircolor.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11N.129.7E.100pc.jpg 20210905.1005.f17.91pct91h91v.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11.4N.130.3E.070pc.jpg


點評

也想知道其中原因為何,是與高壓相臨產生的輻合較好?還是東側系統產生的高層東風容易消弱西側系統的東側流出,因而抑制其發展?  發表於 2021-9-5 22:06
感覺快吃到陸地了 很快就消風了  發表於 2021-9-5 22:01
有聽過兩個熱帶系統如果強度、範圍差不多,東側系統會佔有發展優勢,可能也是數值都比較看好94W的原因  發表於 2021-9-5 22:01
其實94w最新風場也有35風標出現  發表於 2021-9-5 21:38

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簽到天數: 3198 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-9-5 23:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 051148Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS
ALONG THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND MARGINAL WRAPPING OF
THE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30C)
SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST
95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg
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簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-6 05:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-9-6 07:18 編輯

JMA升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 129E WEST SLOWLY.

20210905204001_0_Z__C_010000_20210905180000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png 95W_BAND01.gif
20210905.2110.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.10.2N.128.5E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-6 05:43 | 顯示全部樓層
EC,GFS最新系集

wpac (28).png eastasia (23).png
95W_gefs_latest (2).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-6 06:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-9-6 07:19 編輯

JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 052300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 128.9E TO 12.6N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090518Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED 10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD NOTCHED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION(LLC). A 051703Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 95W OVERALL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062300Z.
//
NNNN

wp9521 (1).gif 95W_052300sair.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-6 09:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWCZ00Z隨即升格18W
18W EIGHTEEN 210906 0000 10.5N 127.5E WPAC 30 1004
20210906.0030.himawari-8.vis.95W.INVEST.30kts.1004mb.10.5N.127.5E.100pc.jpg 95W_BD.gif
95W_RBTOP.gif

點評

感覺已往升熱低不會拖那麼晚才有動作,更別說GW  發表於 2021-9-6 09:18
我怎麼覺得日本氣象廳今年對熱帶系統發報特別遲鈍,還是這算是嚴謹?  發表於 2021-9-6 09:17
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