jwpk9899

JMA發GW

霧峰追風者

JMA：TD

t02436

JTWC升格21W，有機會在登陸前升TS。

Heigo

JTWC Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 115.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY
297 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH HAS STARTED
TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED A DISCREET LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND
HIGHER WINDS IN A BAND TO THE SOUTH. RECENT TRENDS FROM A SHIP
TRANSITING JUST EAST OF THE LLCC INDICATES WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AND A PRESSURE
READING OF 1004.2 MB, INDICATING A CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE CENTER AND A
LOWER PRESSURE THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS VIETNAM AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES. GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM
ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE INDICATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC評級Low

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 116.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY
242 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTI
SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W
WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS VIETNAM AS IT STEADILY
CONSOLIDATES. GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM
CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.