簽到天數: 3198 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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king111807|2021-10-2 22:25
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JTWC評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 367
NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AND
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A 021048Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, CYCLONIC TURNING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (30C) SSTS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW ALOFT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE
92W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE PHILIPPINES
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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