king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Tehuantepec, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south
of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 91.8W TO 11.5N 99.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 92.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
9.5N 92.3W, APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ,
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 081933Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN
OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91E WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092300Z.//
NNNN

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

1. Recent satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure
has formed a few hundred miles south-southeast of Tehuantepec,
Mexico. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently disorganized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form by late this weekend or early next week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至60%

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern
Mexico.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
expected to form by late this weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.