(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 232043Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A BROAD, EXPOSED AREA OF
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
