(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4N
87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 152232Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94B WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD MYANMAR WITHIN
THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
