開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

08S.Batsirai 強襲馬達加斯加

簽到天數: 2414 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2022-1-23 11:41 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :96 S
擾動編號日期 :2022 01 23 09
撤編日期        :2022 01 00 00
96S INVEST 220123 0000 8.0S 86.0E SHEM 20 1004

20220123.013000.SH962022.seviri.msg-1.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2022-2-6 09:22 | 顯示全部樓層
判定以C3強度登陸馬達加斯加,Mananjary(5m)國際交換站於15Z亦錄得十分鐘風速90節。 DB966E5C-E63B-472F-9C79-0A83C29AFA45.jpeg 58BB8E89-C36A-4D03-BBCC-A4CD78A0CB48.jpeg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2088 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2022-2-4 11:22 | 顯示全部樓層
留尼旺群島局部地區降下超過1200mm雨量,預估未來將以C3強度,直撲馬國
trajectoire.png
auto5-ykq18.gif
rbtop0-fcst.gif
vis0-fcst.gif
20220204.0200.msg-4.ir.08S.BATSIRAI.105kts.950mb.19.4S.53.9E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 112 天

[LV.6]常住居民II

入門颱風愛好者|2022-1-29 15:06 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
底層風眼重新出現,準備開啟高層風眼迎接二顛!
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2022-1-27 20:50 | 顯示全部樓層
命名Batsirai後快速增強,MFR12Z評定十分鐘90節,JTWC分析T5.0。
FKIO20 FMEE 271231
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20220127/1231Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: BATSIRAI
ADVISORY NR: 2022/02
OBS PSN: 27/1200Z S1755 E07943
CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: WSW 22KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 968HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 27/1800Z S1833 E07807
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 88KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 28/0000Z S1907 E07634
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 28/0600Z S1937 E07508
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 68KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 28/1200Z S2002 E07357
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20220127/1800Z=
TPXS11 PGTW 271232

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)

B. 27/1145Z

C. 17.96S

D. 79.66E

E. TWO/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/5.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET IS 3.5. PT IS 4.5. DBO
DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN WITH DT INCREASE BY GREATER THAN 2.5 IN 24
HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS
08S_BAND13.gif 08S_BD.gif

點評

好像燦樹  發表於 2022-1-27 20:59
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2022-1-24 11:43 | 顯示全部樓層
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 460NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO
THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW,
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2022-1-24 00:11 | 顯示全部樓層
評級Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 48.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6S
89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 493NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231226Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD
LLC. A 230349Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING WITH 15-20KT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF
INVEST 96S WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表