(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.4N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
051130Z HIMAWARI-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. INVEST 91W DISPLAYS FAVORABLY LOW
(5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ACCOMPANIED WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE 91W WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND HEAD GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.4N
140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 49 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. A 050334Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT ALSO HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 12-17
KNOT WINDS. INVEST 91W DISPLAYS FAVORABLY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ACCOMPANIED WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE 91W WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND HEAD
GENERALLY NORTH NORTHWEST IN THE DIRECTION OF MAINLAND JAPAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12
TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
SSD此前也已分析T1.0
TXPQ26 KNES 050620
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 05/0530Z
C. 24.3N
D. 140.7E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. VERY
SMALL SYSTEM. MET AND PT=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON
