霧峰追風者

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 23.0N 140.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

霧峰追風者

WTPN21 PGTW 210130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.1N 141.0E TO 26.7N 137.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.4N 140.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.4N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 201923Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C) SST AND LOW (10-
15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TROUGH SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
94W INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220130Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JMA 18Z升格熱帶低壓，JTWC 評級Medium。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 141E NORTH 10 KT.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.5N 138.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ORGANIZING CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 201200Z AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS
CONFIRMS THE IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C) SST AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH A TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST OF 94W INCREASING
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWARD TRACK AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON ITS
SLOW TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.5N
138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAK
FORMATIVE BANDING AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 200030 ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED
LLC WITH MAINLY 10-15KT WINDS AND A SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY 94W IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TUTT WITH WESTERLIES OVERHEAD INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD BUT DIFFER IN INTENSITY WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
SHOWING SLOW TO MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.