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霧峰追風者|2022-9-22 09:59
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WTPN21 PGTW 212130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.6N 133.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 212100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 133.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C)
SSTS, LOW (0-05KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIOCRE OUTFLOW DESPITE
HAVING A POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE AREA HAS
BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE ALONG WITH VORTICITY SIGNATURES STEADILY
INCREASING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY ABOUT 95W. GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS, IT WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE USUAL TCFA TIMELINE BUT INSTEAD BEYOND
TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT COMPLETELY GOES AGAINST THE
ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON EIR. 95W IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHILE MEANDERING EAST THEN GUIDANCE
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FORCES IT ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222130Z.
//
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