霧峰追風者

WTPN21 PGTW 272130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 133.9E TO 24.6N 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 272100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 133.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 536NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 271644Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
282130Z.
//
NNNN

t02436

06Z提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0N 136.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 270432Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE AREA. AN EARLIER 270030Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS, A BROADER ONE TO
THE SOUTH AND A SMALLER ONE TO THE NORTH. THE BEST TRACK POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO FIT WITHIN THE CENTROID BETWEEN THESE TWO
CIRCULATIONS. THE SAME FEATURES CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THE MSI, WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CAN BE SEEN
PEAKING FROM BENEATH THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE INVEST IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ZESTY (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN ON THE RISE, A LOOK AT THE
850MB VORTICITY CHART SHOWS PLENTY OF PVA TO POSSIBLY FIGHT OFF THE
RISE OF SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0N
136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 487 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260936Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY HIGH (30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND MEDIUM (15-
25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AND
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.