king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 S
擾動編號日期：2026 年 05 月 06 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 05 月 09 日 20 時
93S.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-6.2S-84.7E

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.3S 81.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7S
83.2E, APPROXIMATELY 641 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD ROTATION WITH
PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C),
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS ESEMBLES DEPICTING SLOW BUT
STEADY DEVLEOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN A DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE, DEPICTING A RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW VERY WEAK DEVELOPMENT,
KEEPING THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.