king111807

  熱帶風暴  
編號：01 E
名稱：Amanda

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2026 年 06 月 01 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2026 年 06 月 03 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 06 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：40 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1004 毫巴

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
90E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.8.5N.124.5W

  NHC：50%  

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (90E):
A broad area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle part of the week while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across
the western portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

NHC升格TS，命名Amanda

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 032032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
200 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Visible and infrared satellite imagery have depicted increasing
organization of Amanda today with curved banding noted. A SAR RCM-2
pass from earlier this morning showed a slightly larger and more
uniform wind field around the center of Amanda, and the center
position was slightly farther south than previously forecast. The
initial position of the storm has been adjusted accordingly.
Subjective and objective Dvorak analyses range from 30-40 kt, so the
initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt.

Amanda is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of
300/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast will support a
northwestward to west-northwestward motion over the next couple of
days. A turn toward the west then west-southwest with a slower
forward speed is expected by this weekend as the ridge strengthens
and builds westward. The official forecast has been shifted slightly
southward through the forecast period to account for the initial
position adjustment and model trends, and is close to the Google
DeepMind forecast track.

The storm is embedded within a rather humid low- and
mid-level air mass, and all model guidance supports steady
strengthening within the next 36 h. GFS and EC SHIPS RI probability
model guidance has decreased since the previous forecast cycle,
showing a 10 to 20 percent chance of rapid intensification over the
next 24 to 36 h. The official NHC forecast shows a peak intensity of
50 kt, which lies near the higher end of the model guidance. Amanda
will encounter a drier mid-level environment and increasing shear
beyond 36 h, and may struggle to produce convection this weekend.
Slow to steady weakening is expected as a result, and Amanda is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at Day 5, though some
models suggest this could occur sooner than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 10.8N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 11.5N 129.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 12.4N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  05/0600Z 13.0N 132.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  05/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  06/0600Z 13.0N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  06/1800Z 12.6N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  07/1800Z 12.0N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 11.4N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Adams

king111807

NHC升格01E

WTPZ41 KNHC 022037
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 02 2026

The area of low pressure (90E) that NHC has been monitoring for
development has showed increased signs of organization today. An
area of sheared thunderstorm activity is observed to the north of
the low-level center, along with fragmented curved bands over the
northern portion of the circulation. Scatterometer wind data
revealed the system had a closed circulation, and its definition has
improved in recent passive microwave and visible satellite images.
Based on these developments, the NHC is initiating advisories on the
first tropical depression of the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane
season, with an initial intensity of 25 kt.

The depression is moving slowly westward (280/3 kt), but is expected
to move a bit faster toward the northwest during the next few days
along the southwestern side of a steering ridge over the central
portion of the basin. The track models are in very good agreement
for this portion of the forecast, and the official NHC prediction
lies between the simple and corrected-consensus aids. By days 4-5, a
slowdown is forecast as the system moves underneath the ridge and
steering currents collapse. There is increased track spread during
this period, although most models generally show a slow westward or
southwestward drift, which is reflected in the official forecast.

Warm sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C and strong upper-level
divergence in a moist environment should allow for some
strengthening during the next couple of days or so. However,
easterly shear is forecast to increase by late week, which will
likely limit the extent of strengthening that occurs. The official
NHC forecast shows the system reaching tropical storm strength by
Wednesday, with a peak intensity in good agreement with the HCCA
consensus aid and the HAFS models. A weakening trend is forecast by
this weekend as the system encounters a drier and more stable
mid-level environment over cooler SSTs, and it is possible that the
system could become devoid of convection by the end of the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z  9.4N 126.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  03/0600Z  9.9N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 10.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 11.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 12.6N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  05/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 13.7N 133.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 13.7N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 13.0N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

king111807

NHC展望提升至90%

Western East Pacific (90E):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located well southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Additionally,
satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation has become
better defined since yesterday. Continued development is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the western portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

Western East Pacific (90E):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure located well
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward around 10 mph across the
western portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

Western East Pacific (90E):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure located well
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
starting to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward around 10 mph across the
western portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 020100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 125.6W TO 10.8N 125.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 125.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
125.5W, APPROXIMATELY 867NM SOUTHWEST OF CLARION, ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
29-30C, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10KTS, AND MODERATE WESTWARD
OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALL GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030100Z.//
NNNN

king111807

NHC展望提升至60%

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (90E):
Visible satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate
that the area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become slightly better
defined today, but the shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward
or west-northwestward around 10 mph across the western portion of
the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.